Session 10 “It is said that the present is pregnant with the future.” - Voltaire

Yesterday was an insightful seminar on technological assessment and forecasting. For the past few seminars, we have talked about different fields of technology in the present and also possible technological advancements in the future. This seminar rounds up everything by evaluating current technology and predicting its future. 

“It is said that the present is pregnant with the future.” - Voltaire

I'm intrigued by this quote. At first glance, this quote is hilarious to me. However after delving into it, I realize it makes a lot of sense. Indeed, the seed for the future lies in the present. We can predict the future by extrapolating present trends and whatever we conceptualize now is possible in the future. But to turn vision into reality, we need passion and commitment which requires a lot of determination. To me, this is an important and key takeaway. 

Some interesting concepts include the importance of foresight. Firstly, we are experiencing exponential revolution today- 10 years from now, our computers will be a billion times more efficient. This is linked to Moore's law which i have found out while researching for my individual presentation. Moore's law state that computing power doubles every year or two. In other words, with the same computing power as one that cost $1,000 a year or two ago, it will cost only $500 today. With such increase in the rate of development and as companies become more cost efficient, the only way to stand out and edge over competitors is to have the ability to foresee the future that is not obvious to competitors and make preparations for it through strategic planning. 

Secondly, we cannot always fulfill every need- there is a need to prioritize due to the lack of resources. Having foresight will help us to decide which industry to prioritize given our shortage in resources. For instance, the ability to predict the future will help us make a wise decision on which industry to invest in. In Singapore, there was a struggle between EDB and A* Star in the competition of resources. Since it makes more economic sense to specialize in one industry, A* Star eventually fought and won the investments from the government as Bioscience is potentially more lucrative than EDB's proposal of an agricultural institute. However, predictions must be accurate as wrong foresight may incur a huge loss of fund. 

Another concept that interests me is that there are may different methods to foresee the future. Some methods highlighted are...

(1)Back forecasting - working back from vision of the future

(2)Delphi - Remove outliers and take average data, using median to forecast

(3) Expert discussion - use of SMART people

(4) Essays- Using Science fiction to influence and capture imagination

(5) Gaming- New method involving scenario planning and simulations

(6) Key technologies – zoom in to different technnology and form big picture

Complementing this, Siew Lin also presented on 5 ways to view the future.

1.Extrapolators: Logical extension of the past

2.Pattern Analysis: Future is the mirror image of past image- there is a pattern

3.Goal Analysis: Beliefs and values of certain industries

4.Counter Punches: Future is unpredictable but certain trends are identifiable. 

5.Intuitors: Future is predicted due to mixture of random events.

Personally, I feel that the most important thing we need to consider when forecasting the future is the differentiation of working back from the future and working forward to the future. The former involves back forecasting (as mentioned in the slides) while the latter involves extrapolators (mentioned in Siew Lin's presentation) - extrapolating from current trends to work towards the vision. 

In my opinion, although we should not escape from the past and present as valuable lessons can be drawn, they should not be the only focus while forecasting the future. This is because extrapolating from current trends will limit our options like a crushed piece of paper as demonstrated by the prof. On the other hand, when working forward to the future, we can envision the future without any limitations like a straight piece of paper. Besides, with the ever changing trends currently, it will be hard to extrapolate from the current situations and therefore we should free ourselves from the shackle of the present and past.

The presentation by Yan Gen mentioned about a framework that weaves social context into predictions for the future. Such a framework shifts from a hard system to a social system which focuses on working towards desirable social outcomes using technology. This is a very interesting point. Usually, we pay too much attention to the profitability of a technology and whether it is viable in the market instead of considering the possible social impacts it may bring to us. This framework could possibly ensure that technology is advancing ethically which then minimized the possible harms it may bring when abused. 

However, I think that this framework can be an issue of further discussion. Will this framework produce reliable results? What are the social outcomes that are considered 'desirable'? How can different social actors come to a final decision if they have their own interest to prioritize?

Overall, I rate this lesson 8.2/10. It is interesting to me because I have never thought about forecasting the future. -1.8 marks because i have to attend lesson on my birthday.